CAI raises pressing estimates for MY25-26 to 32.40 million bales

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its pressing estimates for the MY25-26 upward to 32.40 million bales, marking a 350,000-bale increase from previous projections. This adjustment follows stronger-than-anticipated yields in the central zone, particularly Maharashtra, which offset marginal output declines in Gujarat. This supply-side expansion arrives as a vital buffer for the domestic spinning industry, which has faced consistent volatility in global fiber pricing. Despite the increased availability, total domestic consumption is projected at 30.5 million bales, a slight decline compared to the previous year’s 31.4 million bales as textile mills optimize inventory amid high operational overheads.

The broader apparel sector is capitalizing on this improved fiber security to stabilize yarn procurement costs. However, international trade dynamics remain restrictive; CAI has moderated export expectations to 1.5 million bales, down from last year’s 1.8 million, as domestic parity prices remain higher than global benchmarks. Industry experts suggest that the closing stock, estimated to reach a robust 10.7 million bales by September 2026, provides a strategic opportunity for manufacturers to secure long-term contracts. This surplus is expected to insulate the value chain from potential monsoon-related disruptions in the upcoming sowing cycle, ensuring that downstream garment exporters maintain price competitiveness in sensitive Western markets.