Cotton sector in India faces nuanced outlook in 2025-26 : USDA

India’s cotton sector is facing a novel outlook for the 2025-26 crop year, according to the latest USDA forecasts. A key player in the global market, the country is expected to witness a shift in production and consumption trends during the year.

The most notable change for India is a projected decrease in mill-use, which has been lowered by 500,000 bales to 25.0 million bales. This revision suggests a potential slowdown in domestic cotton consumption by India's textile industry.

Alongside this, the forecast for India’s cotton imports has also been lowered by 100,000 bales to 2.9 million bales. This reduction in import demand, combined with the drop in domestic mill-use, could be a key indicator of market dynamics within the country.

The USDA's revised forecasts highlight India's position within a complex and shifting global cotton landscape. The total world mill-use is projected to decrease by 135,000 bales, with India accounting for a significant portion of this decline. Overall global production forecast was reduced by 1.8 million bales, primarily due to a substantial drop in the US crop estimate. These changes, coupled with ongoing tariff uncertainties, add a layer of complexity for textile supply chains globally.