Cotton sowing outlook remains uncertain amid delayed monsoon, sluggish demand

As the 2026 Kharif season advances, India’s cotton cultivation is being defined by a dichotomy between strong policy support and environmental fragility. While the central government’s decision to hike the Minimum Support Price (MSP) by Rs 557 per quintal, bringing rates to Rs 8,267 for medium and Rs 8,667 for long staple cotton has successfully incentivized farmers to favor the fiber, planting progress remains uneven. Early trade estimates indicate a potential 15 per cent increase in acreage, with national sowing projected to exceed 130 lakh hectare. However, recent Ministry of Agriculture data reveals a more complex picture; as of mid-June, cumulative sowing across major states has lagged behind the previous year’s pace, as farmers Maharashtra and Telangana await more consistent monsoon rainfall to ensure optimal germination.

Experts sau, cotton’s relative drought resilience makes it a strategic hedge for growers concerned about potential El Niño-induced moisture deficits. Atul Ganatra, Chairman-Crop Committee, Cotton Association of India points out, while northern states like Punjab and Haryana report a decline, substantial gains in Central and Southern India are expected to offset this drop. For the domestic textile and apparel value chain, the outlook remains cautious. Despite the temporary suspension of import duties to secure raw material supply, sluggish downstream demand for yarn and finished fabrics continues to exert pressure on mill procurement. The industry now remains fixed on the monsoon’s path through July, as the volume and spatial distribution of rainfall will ultimately determine if the projected acreage gains materialize into a bumper harvest.