ICAC forecasts stable 2025-26 cotton season with trade recovery

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has released its June update for the 2025-26 season, keeping global cotton production steady at 26 million tonnes and consumption at 25.7 million tonnes. Trade is expected to rebound, rising 2 per cent to 9.7 million tonnes, driven by mill demand and increased carryover stocks, though ongoing tariff tensions and regulatory issues could impact movement.

Production revisions show upward adjustments for Brazil, the United States, and West Africa. However, a slight reduction from China offsets these gains. China, despite achieving a record yield of 2,257 kg per hectare this season, is forecasted to produce 6.3 million tonnes in 2025/26 slightly down but still leading global output.

Consumption remains under pressure due to fiber competition, policy uncertainty, and escalating tariffs. These factors could weigh heavily on downstream demand, even as stock levels provide some buffer.

The ICAC’s price forecast for the current season average A Index stands at 81 cents per pound. For 2025-26, the preliminary forecast ranges widely from 56 to 95 cents, with a midpoint of 73 cents per pound, reflecting uncertainties in supply-demand dynamics. Forecasts are prepared by ICAC economist Lorena Ruiz.