USDA forecasts higher US cotton output and exports for 2025-26, global trade to rise over 5%

The USDA’s May 2025 WASDE report projects higher US cotton production, exports, and stocks for the 2025-26 season while consumption remains unchanged. Planted area is estimated at 9.87 million acres, with improved Southwest weather lowering abandonment and raising the harvested area to 8.37 million acres, compared to 7.81 million acres in 2024-25. However, yield is expected to decline to 832 pounds per acre, down from 886 pounds. Production is forecast at 14.50 million bales, slightly above last season’s 14.41 million.

Exports are projected to rise to 12.50 million bales, supported by larger beginning stocks and stronger global import demand. Ending stocks are forecast at 5.20 million bales, up 400,000 from 2024-25, while the season-average price is projected at 62 cents per pound.

For 2024-25, USDA raised export estimates by 200,000 bales to 11.10 million, trimming ending stocks to 4.80 million bales. The price remains at 63 cents per pound. Globally, 2025-26 cotton supply is set to increase 1.5 per cent as higher beginning stocks offset a slight dip in production. Consumption is expected to grow 1.2 per cent to 118.08 million bales. Global trade is forecast to rise over 5 per cent to 44.83 million bales, driven by stronger exports from the US and Brazil. Ending stocks remain near 78.38 million bales.