Global cotton production in 2024-25 will be lower by 2.6 million bales: USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its its global cotton production forecast for 2024-25,  by 2.6 million bales to 117.64 million bales, reveals August 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The report highlights a drop in global end-of-period inventory estimate to 77.61 million bales from 82.63 million bales in the previous month. Additionally, global consumption has been adjusted downward by nearly 1 million bales, largely due to decreased demand in China.

For US cotton, the USDA has slashed its 2024-25 production forecast by 1.9 million bales, bringing the total to 15.11 million bales. The yield forecast has been slightly reduced to 840 pounds per acre, compared to 844 pounds per acre previously. As a result, the ending inventory forecast for 2024-25 now stands at 4.5 million bales, down from the earlier estimate of 5.3 million bales.

The report also highlights a reduction in area under cotton plantation by 500,000 acres as per the data from the Farm Service Agency. The abandonment rate is now estimated at 23 per cent, an increase of 6 per cent from the previous month. Consequently, the estimated harvested area has been revised to 8.6 million acres, about 11 per cent lower than the July WASDE forecast.

The all-cotton yield estimate of 840 pounds per acre is slightly below last month's figure. Exports are projected to decrease by 1 million bales due to reduced global trade and a smaller crop. Ending stocks are down by approximately 800,000 bales to 4.5 million, or 32 per cent of use, primarily because of the reduced crop size.