Global cotton production rise, US exports dip

Global cotton production is set to increase in the 2024-25 cotton year, primarily driven by higher yields in India and Argentina. However, the supply increase is accompanied by a fall in global demand, particularly from China.

India's cotton production is projected to rise by 1 million bales, while global consumption is expected to increase by over 500,000 bales. Despite higher production, US cotton exports are forecast to drop by over 400,000 bales due to Brazil's competitive pricing and China's reduced demand.

China's cotton imports are projected to decline by 500,000 bales, while Pakistan's imports are expected to rise by the same amount. The uncertain political climate in China has further hindered US cotton sales, as Chinese buyers are hesitant to make forward purchases

As a result of these factors, US cotton shipments are projected to reach a nine-year low in the 2024-25 cotton year. While global cotton stocks are expected to increase slightly, the overall market outlook remains cautious due to the evolving demand-supply dynamics.