India’s cotton acreage to decline 3% in MY 2025-26, production steady: USDA

India’s cotton acreage for market year (MY) 2025-26 is projected at 11.4 million hectares, down three per cent from 11.8 million hectares last year, as farmers shift to higher-return crops like pulses and oilseeds, according to USDA India Post.

Despite lower acreage, production is forecasted at 25 million bales of 480 pounds each, supported by higher yields. With expectations of a normal monsoon, the USDA projects an average yield of 477 kg per hectare, up three per cent from 461 kg in MY 2024-25.

Acreage reductions are expected in Haryana (five per cent), Rajasthan (two per cent), Gujarat (three per cent), Madhya Pradesh (five per cent), and southern states (seven per cent), as farmers opt for more profitable crops. Maharashtra’s acreage is likely to remain steady.

Mill consumption is estimated at 25.7 million bales, up 0.8 per cent, while exports are expected to rise seven per cent to 1.5 million bales on large carryover stocks and a weaker rupee. Imports are forecast at 2.5 million bales, down four per cent, with mills relying on foreign supplies for high-quality cotton. ELS cotton demand is set to grow, with the US maintaining a dominant market share in India’s imports.