National Cotton Council’s US industry outlook for 2024 is a mixed bag.

The US cotton industry is bracing for a bumpy ride in 2024. While global demand is expected to inch up, it's still lagging behind expectations, putting pressure on the entire supply chain. Farmers are facing tough choices: plant less cotton due to high costs, or risk losing money if prices don't rise.

The National Cotton Council predicts a 3.7 per cent drop in planted acreage compared to 2023, with some areas even expecting a 6 per cent decline. This is mainly due to the gap between production costs and current cotton prices. However, a recent price bump for cotton compared to corn and soybeans might nudge some farmers to plant more.

Even with a potential increase in acreage, the US cotton crop is estimated at 14.6 million bales, slightly higher than last year. This could lead to more cotton available for export, especially since domestic mills are expected to use slightly more than in 2023.

The global picture is a little brighter, with cotton consumption projected to rise by 2.6 per cent. This means more opportunities for US exports, but there's a new sheriff in town: Brazil. Their cotton exports are rapidly growing, and they're on track to become the world's biggest cotton seller soon, posing a significant threat to US dominance.

Overall, the 2024 cotton season is filled with uncertainty. While the global demand outlook is improving, high production costs and fierce competition from Brazil could make things tough for US farmers. Keep an eye on economic trends and cotton prices, as they could significantly impact the industry's fortunes in the coming year.